PAPER, proof-building. NOT bettable until positive ROI + closing-line value over a real sample (Rule D-64 §3). Refresh to watch it build. · as of 2026-07-28T12:52:00.537151+00:00
| Matchup | Pick | Odds | Model conf | Status | Reasoning + Newton verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Guardians @ Cincinnati Reds | Cleveland Guardians ML | 124 | 0.539 | pending | MLB model v0 — edge +11.0% (model 53.9% vs market 42.9%). PAPER, proof-building (Rule D-64). Verify (NovoCatalyst): HOLD — HOLD — Newton=VALIDATED | TMQC=DISPUTE |
| Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers ML | -178 | 0.711 | pending | MLB model v0 — edge +9.6% (model 71.1% vs market 61.6%). PAPER, proof-building (Rule D-64). Verify (NovoCatalyst): HOLD — HOLD — Newton=VALIDATED | TMQC=INDETERMINATE |
| Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins | Miami Marlins ML | -108 | 0.576 | pending | MLB model v0 — edge +7.6% (model 57.6% vs market 50.0%). PAPER, proof-building (Rule D-64). Verify (NovoCatalyst): HOLD — HOLD — Newton=VALIDATED | TMQC=DISPUTE |
| Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers | Detroit Tigers ML | -142 | 0.614 | pending | MLB model v0 — edge +5.1% (model 61.4% vs market 56.4%). PAPER, proof-building (Rule D-64). Verify (NovoCatalyst): HOLD — HOLD — Newton=VALIDATED | TMQC=INDETERMINATE |
| Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels | Houston Astros ML | -108 | 0.635 | pending | MLB model v0 — edge +13.6% (model 63.5% vs market 50.0%). PAPER, proof-building (Rule D-64). Verify (NovoCatalyst): HOLD — HOLD — Newton=VALIDATED | TMQC=INDETERMINATE |
| Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Minnesota Twins ML | -158 | 0.642 | pending | MLB model v0 — edge +5.3% (model 64.2% vs market 58.9%). PAPER, proof-building (Rule D-64). Verify (NovoCatalyst): HOLD — HOLD — Newton=VALIDATED | TMQC=INDETERMINATE |
| Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals | Washington Nationals ML | -142 | 0.654 | pending | MLB model v0 — edge +9.0% (model 65.4% vs market 56.4%). PAPER, proof-building (Rule D-64). Verify (NovoCatalyst): HOLD — HOLD — Newton=VALIDATED | TMQC=INDETERMINATE |
| Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Boston Red Sox ML | -144 | 0.676 | pending | MLB model v0 — edge +10.9% (model 67.6% vs market 56.7%). PAPER, proof-building (Rule D-64). Verify (NovoCatalyst): HOLD — HOLD — Newton=VALIDATED | TMQC=INDETERMINATE |
| Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets | Atlanta Braves ML | -162 | 0.71 | pending | MLB model v0 — edge +11.6% (model 71.0% vs market 59.3%). PAPER, proof-building (Rule D-64). Verify (NovoCatalyst): HOLD — HOLD — Newton=VALIDATED | TMQC=INDETERMINATE |
| Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres | San Diego Padres ML | -174 | 0.73 | pending | MLB model v0 — edge +12.0% (model 73.0% vs market 61.0%). PAPER, proof-building (Rule D-64). Verify (NovoCatalyst): HOLD — HOLD — Newton=VALIDATED | TMQC=DISPUTE |
| Milwaukee Brewers @ San Francisco Giants | Milwaukee Brewers ML | -132 | 0.737 | pending | MLB model v0 — edge +19.1% (model 73.7% vs market 54.7%). PAPER, proof-building (Rule D-64). Verify (NovoCatalyst): HOLD — HOLD — Newton=VALIDATED | TMQC=DISPUTE |
| Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | St. Louis Cardinals ML | 104 | 0.509 | STARTED — not bettable | MLB model v0 — edge +3.8% (model 50.9% vs market 47.1%). PAPER, proof-building (Rule D-64). Verify (NovoCatalyst): HOLD — HOLD — Newton=VALIDATED | TMQC=INDETERMINATE |
| Milwaukee Brewers @ San Francisco Giants | Milwaukee Brewers ML | -142 | 0.737 | STARTED — not bettable | MLB model v0 — edge +17.6% (model 73.7% vs market 56.1%). PAPER, proof-building (Rule D-64). Verify (NovoCatalyst): HOLD — HOLD — Newton=VALIDATED | TMQC=DISPUTE |
| Cleveland Guardians @ Cincinnati Reds | Cleveland Guardians ML | 133 | 0.561 | STARTED — not bettable | MLB model v0 — edge +15.1% (model 56.1% vs market 41.0%). PAPER, proof-building (Rule D-64). Verify (NovoCatalyst): HOLD — HOLD — Newton=VALIDATED | TMQC=DISPUTE |
| Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels | Houston Astros ML | -109 | 0.635 | STARTED — not bettable | MLB model v0 — edge +13.8% (model 63.5% vs market 49.8%). PAPER, proof-building (Rule D-64). Verify (NovoCatalyst): HOLD — HOLD — Newton=VALIDATED | TMQC=INDETERMINATE |
| Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Boston Red Sox ML | -192 | 0.676 | STARTED — not bettable | MLB model v0 — edge +4.7% (model 67.6% vs market 62.9%). PAPER, proof-building (Rule D-64). Verify (NovoCatalyst): HOLD — HOLD — Newton=VALIDATED | TMQC=INDETERMINATE |
| Matchup | Pick | Odds | Model conf | Status | Reasoning + Newton verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Liberty @ Los Angeles Sparks | Los Angeles Sparks ML | 164 | 0.393 | pending | WNBA model v0 — edge +3.3% (model 39.3% vs market 36.0%). PAPER, proof-building (Rule D-64). Verify (NovoCatalyst): HOLD — HOLD — Newton=VALIDATED | TMQC=INDETERMINATE |
| Indiana Fever @ Seattle Storm | Indiana Fever ML | -430 | 0.807 | pending | WNBA model v0 — edge +3.4% (model 80.7% vs market 77.3%). PAPER, proof-building (Rule D-64). Verify (NovoCatalyst): HOLD — HOLD — Newton=VALIDATED | TMQC=INDETERMINATE |
| Connecticut Sun @ Washington Mystics | Washington Mystics ML | -240 | 0.829 | pending | WNBA model v0 — edge +15.7% (model 82.9% vs market 67.2%). PAPER, proof-building (Rule D-64). Verify (NovoCatalyst): HOLD — HOLD — Newton=VALIDATED | TMQC=DISPUTE |
Glass box: transparent model (log5 + pitcher/home) → explainable edge → Newton independently re-derives + verdicts each pick → settlement grades it. Auto-refreshes every 60s. JSON at /model-proof.